The Illusion of Confidence: Understanding the Dunning-Kruger Effect

Have you ever had that exciting feeling that fresh graduates get when they think they totally nailed an interview that required more skills than they have as new grads? But then, months go by and you never hear back from the employer for the job? 

You are not alone, I felt that too. A picture containing text, clipart

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In an attempt to understand why some fresh graduates think they are amazing and desperately need to be hired, even for positions they might not be ready for, while more experienced seniors are often less certain about their abilities despite having higher competencies? Well, I decided to look into one of the reasons behind this phenomenon. It turns out that this feeling of superior competency among new graduates, despite their actual level of skill, could be due to something called the Dunning-Kruger effect. This effect can cause people to overestimate their worth in the job market, even when they don’t have the necessary competencies to back it up.

Why this happens? Why people with less competencies seems to have superior thoughts about the competencies they possess that is not of true representation of their true market value and are fixated on their own current state and not seeing the gaps that needs to be improved?

This is what we are going to discuss in this blog post. When we start on something since, we are aware that we have no knowledge, our perceived knowledge in a way aligns with how much knowledge we have, which is non. But pretty quickly the perceived knowledge skyrockets, usually after 6 – 12 months of being involved in a particular subject.  Until an inflection point happens. Even though you are learning more your “actual knowledge” going up but your perception of the knowledge starts going down. As you found contradicting data that challenges your knowledge and then you realize that you want to learn more. This is called Dunning-Kruger effect.

Dunning-Kruger effect is a form of cognitive bias that models the behavioral characteristics in social settings, between perceived knowledge and actual Knowledge, whereby people with limited knowledge in a specific realm tend to hyperbolically pronounce their own knowledge in that realm. The effect was first described in a seminal 1999 paper by the two psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger.

The linchpin of the Dunning-Kroger effect is self-awareness. People who don’t have much knowledge about a subject tends to omit the gaps in their knowledge thinking that they are well rounded on the subject. 

On the contrary, people who have expertise level of a subject don’t exode an inflated attitude of knowing everything about the subject. As you drink from the fountain of knowledge, you will be thirsty for the ignorance you once had, the more knowledge you acquire, the less the certainty and absolute your talks become and more caveating things as you became very aware of how little you know about something. 

At surface level Dunning-Kroger effect can be mistaken for promoting judgment on other people’s awareness competencies. In fact, according to Dr. Dunning “the effect is about us, not them” https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/critical-thinking/dunning-kruger-effect-probably-not-real

The effect is about how we should be humble and aware that true knowledge exists in knowing we know nothing.

How to avoid the Dunning-Kruger effect?

Unlike the misconception that Dunning-Kruger effect is pointing downwardly at people, it is in fact a great psychological tool for oneself as it could be you used as the brakes that slows down the inflated sense of “I know everything” that is associated with surface level knowledge. It helps in creating a cognitive restraint frame of mind when the false sense of I know everything kicks in which in turn paves the way for humbleness.

The following are practical pointers that can be adopted to help avoiding the false sense of superiority in knowledge:

  1. Take an inventory of yourself and examine how do you operate in life; on probability or possibility. The former allows for growth me Ask for genuine feedbacks about my own competencies, reflect on the things that shows to
  2. Ask for genuine feedback about your own competencies on the specific subject matter. 
  3. Reflect and examine whether your level of delivery matches your level promoting. That cultivates self-awareness about your true level of expertise. Typically, the less we know about a subject the more we think we know about it.
  4. Lastly, as Socrates used to say, “the only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing.” Always remember approach things from humbleness as this allows a room for growth, when think of yourself as you don’t know enough you will go and learn more and become better. If you think you know enough that’s when you become like stagnant creek where all creeps in.

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